Scenarios for the Outcome of the War in Iran
March 7, 2026
The war in Iran has shifted balances in the Middle East, leaving the question of how it will end open. There are three main scenarios: a democratic overthrow of the regime, a deal between the West and the Iranian regime, or a violent collapse leading to civil war. Many Iranians desire the fall of the Islamic Republic and the establishment of a democratic political system. However, despite these preferred scenarios, the regime maintains significant checks and repressive mechanisms.